Search for:
Shares inch higher as market awaits key US data

Shares inch higher as market awaits key US data

PHILIPPINE SHARES inched up on Monday ahead of the release of August US consumer price index (CPI) data that could affect the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision this month.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went up by 10.80 points or 0.17% to end at 6,233.74 on Monday, while the broader all shares index rose by 3.22 points or 0.09% to close at 3,363.45.

“Philippine shares were bought up as investors look to a fresh new batch of economic data that could influence price action activity. For the week ahead in the US, investors are looking forward to key inflation data,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

“Local stocks moved sideways with no major catalyst to move the market either way. Investors also opted to stay on the sidelines, anticipating the release of US CPI data, which is expected to provide clearer insights into the direction of US monetary policy,” AB Capital Securities, Inc. Vice-President Jovis L. Vistan said in a Viber message.

August US CPI data will be released on Wednesday.

The US CPI rose 0.2% in July, matching June’s gain. On an annual basis, the CPI advanced by 3.2%.

The US central bank raised borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) in July, bringing its target rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.5%.

It has hiked rates by 525 bps since it began its tightening cycle in March last year.

The Federal Open Market Committee will hold its policy meeting on Sept. 19-20.

“Meanwhile, it’s going to be a relatively quiet week for us here in the Philippines. The only economic data due for this week is the remittances [report],” Mr. Limlingan added.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is scheduled to release July remittance data on Friday.

In June, cash remittances coursed through banks inched up by 2.1% to $2.81 billion from $2.75 billion in the same month last year, BSP data showed.

For the first six months of 2023, cash remittances rose by 2.9% to $15.79 billion.

Sectoral indices were split on Monday. Mining and oil climbed by 188.54 points or 1.87% to 10,266.96; industrials went up by 94.04 points or 1.06% to 8,910.16; and services rose by 4.17 points or 0.27% to 1,538.10.

Meanwhile, financials fell by 5.20 points or 0.29% to 1,788.26; property declined by 2.77 points or 0.1% to 2,586.13; and holding firms dropped by 4.32 points or 0.07% to 5,979.78.

Value turnover went down to P3.62 billion on Monday with 639.89 million shares changing hands from the P3.85 billion with 445.34 million issues seen on Friday.

Decliners outnumbered advancers, 103 to 95, while 41 names closed unchanged.

Net foreign selling rose to P504.93 million on Monday from P347.89 million on Friday.

For this week, Mr. Vistan placed the PSEi’s support at 6,120 and resistance at 6,350. — S.J. Talavera

#Shares #inch #higher #market #awaits #key #data

Stocks may move sideways before US CPI data

PHILIPPINE SHARES are expected to move sideways this week before the release of US inflation data, which could affect the US Federal Reserve’s next move.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) gained 39.87 points or 0.64% to end at 6,222.94 on Friday, while the broader all shares index went up by 13.24 points or 0.39% to 3,360.23.

Week on week, the PSEi rose by 41.88 points or 0.68% from its close of 6,181.06 on Sept. 1.

For this week, analysts said the PSEi may move within a tight range ahead of the release of US consumer inflation data on Sept. 13.

“This week, we could see the index continue its rangebound pattern within the 6,150 to 6,350 area, with investors taking a more cautious stance ahead of the release of US August inflation data,” China Bank Capital Corp. Managing Director Juan Paolo E. Colet said in a Viber message.

“A higher-than-expected rise in US consumer prices would be unwelcome news for equities market as it would pile pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and prolong a hawkish monetary policy,” he added.

Faster US consumer inflation could affect trading activity, China Bank Securities Corp. Research Director Rastine Mackie D. Mercado likewise said in an e-mail on Friday.

“We may see muted buying appetite this week should the US inflation print come in faster than expected, and as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting on Sept. 19-20,” Mr. Mercado said.

The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July, matching June’s gain, Labor department data showed. On an annual basis, the CPI advanced by 3.2%.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said in the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium last month that the central bank may need to raise interests further to cool still-too-high inflation, Reuters reported.

The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in July, bringing its benchmark overnight rate to 5.25-5.5%.

The US central bank has hiked borrowing costs by a total of 525 bps since it started tightening cycle in March 2022.

Another trading driver for this week is the FTSE rebalancing on Friday, Sept. 15, Mr. Colet said.

“What investors are eagerly awaiting is a significant catalyst that can boost trading activity in the market. Nonetheless, we are closely watching the dollar’s resurgence, spurred by recent developments in the United States,” Globalinks Securities and Stocks, Inc. Senior Trader Mark V. Santarina said in a Viber message.

The US dollar index registered an eighth straight week of gains on Friday while global stock indexes ended slightly higher on the day ahead of key US inflation data this week, Reuters reported.

For this week, Mr. Mercado placed the PSEi’s support at 6,150. — S.J. Talavera with Reuters

#Stocks #move #sideways #CPI #data

Shares rise on dovish Fed bets ahead of CPI data

PHILIPPINE STOCKS went up on Monday, tracking US shares’ rise, on bets that the US Federal Reserve is done hiking rates and as investors await the release of August Philippine inflation data.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) went up by 33.62 points or 0.54% to close at 6,214.68 on Monday, while the broader all shares index rose by 14.47 points or 0.43% to end at 3,356.44.

“This increase was attributed to positive cues from Wall Street last Friday, where higher unemployment rates provided investors with optimism that the Federal Reserve might consider pausing its monetary tightening measures in response to the data,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Analyst Claire T. Alviar said in a Viber message.

US stock indexes settled for a mixed close after a US jobs report showed an uptick in unemployment, cementing expectations that the Fed will let interest rates stand at its September meeting, Reuters reported.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 115.80 points or 0.33% to 34,837.71; the S&P 500 gained 8.11 points or 0.18% to 4,515.77; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.15 points or 0.02% to 14,031.81.

The Labor department’s payrolls report showed the US economy added more jobs than expected last month, but the rising unemployment and participation rates, along with a welcome cool-down in average hourly wage growth, solidified expectations that the Fed will let key interest rates stand this month.

“Philippine shares were bought up ahead of the local CPI (consumer price index) [on Tuesday], and as others started taking positions with the week ahead,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

A BusinessWorld poll of 18 analysts yielded a median estimate of 4.9% for August headline inflation, near the lower end of the central bank’s 4.8% to 5.6% forecast for the month.

If realized, this would be faster than the 4.7% print in July, but lower than the 6.3% seen in August 2022.

It would mark the 17th straight month of inflation exceeding the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 2-4% target for the year.

Sectoral indices rose on Monday except for financials, which dropped by 3.07 points or 0.16% to 1,833.81.

Meanwhile, property rose by 37.70 points or 1.46% to 2,604.86; mining and oil went up by 136.43 points or 1.36% to 10,132.72; holding firms increased by 41.86 points or 0.71% to 5,910.55; services gained 4 points or 0.26% to end at 1,507.30; and industrials climbed by 23.13 points or 0.26% to 8,759.89.

Value turnover went down to P11.32 billion on Monday with 2.30 million shares changing hands from the P11.51 billion with 2.11 million issues seen on Friday.

Advancers outnumbered decliners, 94 to 82, while 42 names closed unchanged.

Net foreign selling went down to P1.20 billion on Monday from P5.69 billion on Friday. — SJT with Reuters

#Shares #rise #dovish #Fed #bets #ahead #CPI #data

Peso may move sideways before Aug. inflation data

Peso may move sideways before Aug. inflation data

THE PESO could trade sideways against the dollar this week ahead of the release of August inflation data.

The local unit closed at P56.595 versus the dollar on Thursday, strengthening by 13 centavos from Wednesday’s P56.725 finish, data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines’ website showed.

Week on week, however, the peso dropped by 2.50 centavos from its P56.57 per dollar finish on Aug. 25.

Trading was suspended on Friday as Malacañang suspended work in government offices due to inclement weather.

For this week, the peso could stay at the P56-per-dollar level ahead of the release of  the August consumer price index (CPI) report, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

A BusinessWorld poll of 18 analysts yielded a median estimate of 4.9% for August headline inflation, close to the lower end of the central bank’s 4.8% to 5.6% forecast for the month.

If realized, this would be faster than the 4.7% print in July, but lower than the 6.3% seen in August 2022.

It would mark the 17th straight month of inflation exceeding the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2-4% target.

August inflation data will be released on Sept. 5, Tuesday.

Bets on the US Federal Reserve’s next move could also affect the peso’s movement, as this could be matched by the BSP, Mr. Ricafort added.

Financial markets are now betting the central bank is done raising rates and may start cutting them next year, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, Reuters reported. Futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate show only a slight chance of a rate hike at the Sept. 19-20 meeting.

Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its policy rate by 525 basis points (bps) to the current 5.25%-5.5% range.

Meanwhile, the BSP kept its policy rate at a near 16-year high of 6.25% for a third straight meeting last month.

The BSP raised borrowing costs by 425 bps from May 2022 to March 2023 to tame inflation.

The Monetary Board will next meet on Sept. 21 to review policy.

Mr. Ricafort expects the peso to range from P56.30 to P56.80 per dollar this week. — AMCS with Reuters

#Peso #move #sideways #Aug #inflation #data